Isio’s mortality update: July 2025

Pensions

In our latest mortality update, we consider the release of the CMI 2024 mortality projection model and the new approach to modelling the run-off of pandemic experience.

At the end of June, the CMI released the latest version of the CMI projections model, CMI_2024, following consultation. The model has been updated to include 2024 mortality experience and some wider changes in how the model uses the data, plus a new “half-life” parameter. We are supportive of the changes the CMI has made to the model this year but take a different view to the CMI’s Core Model on the best-estimate half-life parameter to use.

2024 mortality experience (the number of deaths in England & Wales) was around 4% lower overall than in 2023, and slightly lower than the previous record low from 2019. However, the reduction in the number of deaths overall was not even across all age groups or genders. For example, older age groups saw greater reductions in deaths than younger age groups which have actually seen increases. 2025 mortality experience is also shaping up to be similar to 2024 experience so far.

In previous years, the CMI had adopted a ‘weights’ approach to the extraordinary data over the pandemic period (2020 – 2023), so users could vary the use of each year of data in the model when generating projections. This year the CMI has done away with this approach and instead adopted a different way to take account of the pandemic experience, with an “overlay” to provide the shock to mortality rates seen during the pandemic and a separate parameter (the half-life parameter) to control how the overlay is removed over time to leave the underlying trend in mortality.

Given recent mortality experience, and our view that utilising all of the most recent experience is appropriate in setting long-term mortality trends, we have adjusted our life expectancies upwards compared to last year. We still exercise some caution over the recent positive news given stagnating economic growth and other global factors. Added to this, the NHS is still under pressure from increased waiting times and chronic health conditions such as long-covid are still prevalent. Therefore, our views on best estimate life expectancies still do not match the CMI’s Core Model. We explain this in further detail in this paper.

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